:Product: 1115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/0251Z from Region 3140 (N25W76). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (16 Nov, 17 Nov) and likely to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (18 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 475 km/s at 15/0555Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
15/0414Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 414 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 Nov, 18
Nov) and quiet levels on day two (17 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (16 Nov,
17 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    35/30/20
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 134
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov 130/126/120
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  008/008-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/25
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/35