:Product: 1118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/0914Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Nov,
20 Nov, 21 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 474 km/s at 18/0030Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
18/1833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
18/1719Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 508 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (19 Nov, 20
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 116
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov 115/115/115
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  014/020-021/028-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor Storm           30/35/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    65/75/45