:Product: 1119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/1256Z from Region 3150 (N22W55). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov,
22 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 19/0930Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 19/1001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/2102Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (20 Nov, 21
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 115
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov 115/115/120
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  019/030-020/026-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    70/70/50