:Product: 1120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
20/0609Z from Region 3150 (N21W71). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Nov,
22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 487 km/s at 20/0242Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
20/1619Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
20/1629Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 218 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (22 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (23 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 119
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 120/125/125
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  020/026-012/015-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor Storm           30/20/05
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    70/60/30