:Product: 1121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/0342Z from Region 3149 (N22E10). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 21/0946Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 21/0103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
21/0103Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    15/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 117
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 118/115/115
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  012/015-008/010-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/25
Minor Storm           20/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/30/40