:Product: 1122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
22/0727Z from Region 3151 (S19E05). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Nov,
24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 411 km/s at 21/2115Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
22/0631Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
21/2212Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 304 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Nov,
24 Nov, 25 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Nov 116
Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov 118/118/118
90 Day Mean        22 Nov 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  008/010-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/30/25