:Product: 1123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
22/2118Z from Region 3151 (S19E05). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 340 km/s at 22/2114Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
23/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
23/1639Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 150 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25
Nov, 26 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 113
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov 112/112/112
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  011/012-013/015-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/50/45