:Product: 1124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 359 km/s at 24/2024Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
24/2017Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
24/1957Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and
unsettled to active levels on day three (27 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Nov 110
Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        24 Nov 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  013/015-012/012-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           15/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/45/50