:Product: 1125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0722Z from Region 3149 (N22W45). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Nov,
27 Nov, 28 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 25/1712Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 24/2344Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
25/0735Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Nov), unsettled to active
levels on day two (27 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(28 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Nov 109
Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov 110/110/108
90 Day Mean        25 Nov 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  012/012-014/018-011/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/50/30