:Product: 1127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Nov,
29 Nov, 30 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 26/2243Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 27/2015Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
27/1811Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2404 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Nov) and unsettled to
active levels on days two and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Nov 107
Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 105/110/115
90 Day Mean        27 Nov 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  009/010-012/015-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/35
Minor Storm           05/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/50/50