:Product: 1128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (29 Nov) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 684 km/s at 28/1723Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 28/0500Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 28/0252Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 264 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (29 Nov, 30 Nov) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (01 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 107
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 110/115/115
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  016/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  012/015-013/015-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/50/60