:Product: 1129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
29/1358Z from Region 3151 (S16W88). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 29/1532Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 28/2117Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 29/0038Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1709 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (30 Nov, 01
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 108
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 110/110/105
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  018/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  018/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  016/022-017/025-014/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/60/50