:Product: 1201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/0721Z from Region 3152 (N28W38). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Dec,
03 Dec, 04 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 01/0159Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 30/2346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 01/0905Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 3825 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (02 Dec, 04 Dec)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 119
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec 120/125/130
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  017/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  021/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  014/020-011/010-013/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/40
Minor Storm           20/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/35/60