:Product: 1203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/1741Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec,
06 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 656 km/s at 02/2114Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17351 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 134
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec 135/130/130
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  009/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/20