:Product: 1205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/0151Z from Region 3156 (N24E29). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 05/0710Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 05/0057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
05/1057Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2607 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Dec), quiet to active levels on day
two (07 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (08 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 150
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec 150/150/150
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  010/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  006/005-009/012-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/40
Minor Storm           01/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    20/40/65