:Product: 1206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 446 km/s at 05/2316Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
06/1620Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/1107Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2254 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Dec), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (08 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (09 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 144
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec 150/150/150
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  009/012-016/020-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/20
Minor Storm           10/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/15
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    40/65/30