:Product: 1207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
07/1304Z from Region 3157 (N16E19). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 07/2045Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 07/1618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 07/1405Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2496 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Dec 148
Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec 150/150/150
90 Day Mean        07 Dec 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec  011/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  016/020-010/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/15
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    65/30/20