:Product: 1209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
09/1413Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 603 km/s at 08/2128Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 09/1749Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/0933Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 149
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 145/145/140
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20