:Product: 1212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/0035Z from Region 3156 (N28W66). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 12/1521Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 12/0822Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/2218Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 250 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    20/20/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 151
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec 150/146/144
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  006/006-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20