:Product: 1213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/1955Z from Region 3153 (S15W85). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 520 km/s at 13/0603Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 13/1103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/2101Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 369 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M    20/15/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Dec 153
Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec 152/148/144
90 Day Mean        13 Dec 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20