:Product: 1214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
14/1442Z from Region 3165 (S20W49). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (15 Dec) and likely
to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (16
Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (17 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 410 km/s at 14/0336Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
14/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/1936Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 400 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17
Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    75/60/50
Class X    15/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 165
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec 164/160/158
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20