:Product: 1215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
14/2206Z from Region 3165 (S20W49). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (16 Dec) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 367 km/s at 15/1332Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
15/0614Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
15/0614Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Dec, 17 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (18 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M    60/50/50
Class X    15/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Dec 166
Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec 164/162/160
90 Day Mean        15 Dec 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  006/005-006/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20