:Product: 1218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/1010Z from Region 3162 (S13W63). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 387 km/s at 17/2313Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at
18/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/2018Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Dec, 20 Dec) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (21 Dec). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20
Dec, 21 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Dec 156
Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec 150/145/130
90 Day Mean        18 Dec 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  011/012-008/010-017/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/40
Minor Storm           05/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    20/40/15