:Product: 1221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
21/0621Z from Region 3169 (N19E19). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (22 Dec, 23 Dec) and expected to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (24 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 20/2108Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 21/0748Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
21/0609Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (23 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (24 Dec).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (22 Dec, 23 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M    30/30/20
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Dec 139
Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec 140/135/130
90 Day Mean        21 Dec 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  010/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10