:Product: 1223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
23/1446Z from Region 3171 (N24E12). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Dec,
25 Dec, 26 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 675 km/s at 22/2324Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 23/1922Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 23/1230Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 155 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25
Dec, 26 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M    10/10/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Dec 128
Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 132/132/135
90 Day Mean        23 Dec 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec  017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  014/016-013/015-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/30/25