:Product: 1224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
24/0414Z from Region 3169 (N20W21). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Dec,
26 Dec, 27 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 24/1012Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 24/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 24/0359Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1509 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Dec, 26 Dec) and
unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (27 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M    10/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Dec 133
Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec 133/135/136
90 Day Mean        24 Dec 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  019/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  018/020-015/018-023/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/50