:Product: 1228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
28/0256Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 28/0526Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 28/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
28/0441Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1147 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M    35/35/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Dec 160
Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec 158/156/154
90 Day Mean        28 Dec 134

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  016/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  008/010-013/016-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/35
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/50