:Product: 1229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
29/1833Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 29/0105Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 29/1702Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/1221Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2808 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (30 Dec, 31 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    50/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 163
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 164/162/160
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 134

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  013/016-011/014-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor Storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/50/40