:Product: 1230RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
30/1938Z from Region 3176 (N20E10). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 30/2012Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 30/1108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 30/0606Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 3678 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 Dec,
01 Jan, 02 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 162
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan 162/160/160
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 134

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  022/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  013/017-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/40/20