:Product: 1231RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
31/0248Z from Region 3180 (N19E56). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan,
03 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 670 km/s at 31/1938Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/0143Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/0353Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2114 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (03 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Dec 165
Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan 165/165/165
90 Day Mean        31 Dec 134

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  022/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec  013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  009/012-009/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/20