:Product: 0102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
02/0621Z from Region 3176 (N19W29). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan,
05 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 02/0338Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 02/0047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/0048Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3546 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jan) and quiet to minor storm
levels on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jan 146
Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        02 Jan 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  005/005-014/020-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           01/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/60/60