:Product: 0103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
03/1036Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 03/0701Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/1723Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/0417Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4067 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Jan, 05
Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 149
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan 148/148/148
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  014/020-014/018-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/60/40