:Product: 0107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/0052Z from Region 3182 (S17E46). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 07/0307Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 06/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/0351Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Jan, 10
Jan) and quiet levels on day two (09 Jan). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 179
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 180/178/178
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  008/008-006/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/30