:Product: 0110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
10/0016Z from Region 3186 (N25E65). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12
Jan, 13 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 10/1321Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 10/1426Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
10/1348Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 564 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 193
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan 192/190/188
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  008/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/20