:Product: 0113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
13/1015Z from Region 3181 (S21W87). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 13/1123Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 13/2014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
13/2017Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 13/0340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 326 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Jan, 15 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (16 Jan). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 209
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 212/215/215
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 139

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  008/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor Storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    35/35/20