:Product: 0114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
14/2021Z from Region 3182 (S18W48). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 14/0725Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 14/1746Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
13/2105Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 252 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 228
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 225/225/220
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/20/20