:Product: 0115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
15/0342Z from Region 3191 (N12E40). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 15/0137Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 14/2351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 15/0610Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 317 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 Jan, 18
Jan) and quiet levels on day two (17 Jan). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 234
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 235/230/225
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  022/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  008/008-005/005-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/30