:Product: 0119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/1012Z from Region 3196 (N12E31). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (20 Jan,
21 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (22 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 19/0756Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 19/0922Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/1042Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 176 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (20 Jan, 21 Jan)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (22 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    60/60/50
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     10/10/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 219
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 220/220/215
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  013/015-012/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/30/25