:Product: 0120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
20/0152Z from Region 3190 (S15W18). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 1032 km/s at 20/0819Z. Total IMF reached 33
nT at 20/0536Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/1331Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 223 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Jan, 22 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Jan). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22
Jan, 23 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M    60/60/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jan 218
Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan 215/210/210
90 Day Mean        20 Jan 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  009/012-011/008-008/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/35/20