:Product: 0122RSGA.txt :Issued: 2023 Jan 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2023 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 22/1702Z from Region 3194 (S24W57). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 22/1309Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/1819Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/1842Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 352 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan). III. Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Jan 199 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 195/200/190 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 149 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 009/010-008/012-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/35 Minor Storm 05/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 30/35/35 Major-severe storm 35/35/40