:Product: 0123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
22/2225Z from Region 3191 (N12W57). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 23/0613Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 23/0603Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
23/0714Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 329 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Jan, 25 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Jan). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25
Jan, 26 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jan 189
Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan 185/185/180
90 Day Mean        23 Jan 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  008/012-013/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           35/35/30
Major-severe storm    35/40/25