:Product: 0124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
24/1435Z from Region 3192 (N16W70). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (25 Jan, 26 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (27 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 24/1740Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 24/1957Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
24/1038Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 411 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (26 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    35/35/25
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 180
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan 180/175/170
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  013/015-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           35/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/30/20