:Product: 0127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
27/0748Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan,
30 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 590 km/s at 27/1438Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 27/0754Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
27/0833Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 370 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 145
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan 150/150/155
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10