:Product: 0128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/1201Z from Region 3200 (N21W15). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan,
31 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 28/1212Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 27/2320Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
27/2306Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 588 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jan 138
Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan 135/145/145
90 Day Mean        28 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10