:Product: 0130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/1207Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 466 km/s at 30/2059Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
30/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
30/2034Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 997 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (02 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 136
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 135/135/140
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  005/005-005/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/50