:Product: 0131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
31/1100Z from Region 3207 (S11E65). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 31/1341Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/0018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/1622Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 473 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jan 137
Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        31 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/10