:Product: 0201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
01/1801Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02
Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 01/0110Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 01/1823Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
01/1756Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 708 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 134
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 135/135/140
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  007/010-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/10/10