:Product: 0202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
01/2248Z from Region 3204 (N24W86). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 02/1554Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 01/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/2157Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 135
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10