:Product: 0206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
06/1212Z from Region 3211 (S17W57). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 06/2008Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 06/0532Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
06/0459Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 143 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 158
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb 160/158/158
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  012/016-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/35/25