:Product: 0208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
07/2307Z from Region 3213 (N31W01). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 655 km/s at 07/2331Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 08/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 08/1058Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2518 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb)
and quiet levels on day three (11 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 192
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 192/195/195
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  009/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/15